Ist Bitcoin das neue Gold? Sie werden nicht glauben, was Timmer sagt! 😲

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So, Jurrien Timmer, the big cheese over at Fidelity, decides to drop some knowledge on us about how the economy is shifting like a teenager’s mood. Apparently, this could shake up the markets, central bank policies, and, oh yeah, Bitcoin and gold too. You know, just your average Tuesday. The S&P 500 is hitting new highs, and the “Trump Trade” is doing a complete 180. It’s like watching a bad sitcom where the plot twists just keep coming. 🎭

The Trump Effect

Now, Timmer’s got this theory that the first six weeks of 2025 have been a wild ride, with market moves that are about as predictable as a cat on a hot tin roof. He’s saying the market was all set for “higher yields, a stronger dollar, and outperforming US equities,” and then—bam!—it flipped like a pancake at a diner. “So 2025,” he says, as if that’s supposed to mean something. What does that even mean? Is it a compliment? 🤷‍♂️

Bitcoin, fresh off a year-end rally, is still riding high, while gold, Chinese equities, and commodities are tagging along like the kid who always wants to play. Meanwhile, the US dollar and Treasuries are just hanging out at the bottom of the class, probably wondering where it all went wrong.

Even with the S&P 500 strutting its stuff, Timmer calls this a “digestion period.” Digesting what? A bad investment? He explains that under the surface, things are a bit murky. Only 55% of stocks are above their 50-day moving averages. It’s like a party where half the guests are just standing around awkwardly. 🎉

“Sentiment is bullish,” he says, as if that’s supposed to make us feel better. Credit spreads are narrow, and the VIX is at 15. Sounds like a party, right? But hold on—earnings growth was 11% in 2024, and now we’re left wondering what happens if long-term rates decide to climb like they’re training for a marathon.

Now, let’s talk about the Federal Reserve. Timmer’s got his eye on the CPI report, which shows core inflation at 3.5%. He thinks the Fed is going to sit on its hands for a while. “It’s all but unanimous,” he says. Unanimous? Like a group of friends deciding on a restaurant? Good luck with that! 🍕

He warns about a “premature pivot,” recalling the mistakes of the late ’60s. It’s like telling someone not to jump into a pool because they might get wet. Spoiler alert: they’re going to get wet.

With the Fed apparently taking a nap, Timmer thinks the next big thing for interest rates will come from the long end of the curve. He’s got two scenarios: one where we keep spending like there’s no tomorrow, and another where we actually act like responsible adults. Good luck with that! 🙄

He also mentions jobless claims might start to matter more, thanks to government spending. Because, you know, that’s what we need—more numbers to keep track of.

Now, here’s a fun tidbit: Timmer sees a potential bullish pattern in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index. He’s not ready to call it a game-changer, but commodities might just get a second wind if inflation stays high. Gold has been a “big winner,” outperforming skeptics like it’s in a race. “Since 2020, gold has produced almost the same return as the S&P 500 while having a lower volatility.” So, it’s like the tortoise beating the hare, but with more glitter. 🐢✨

Timmer thinks gold could hit $3,000, thanks to a global uptick in money supply. It’s like a game of Monopoly where everyone just keeps passing Go and collecting $200. But he’s also saying that gold’s recent strength might be more about fiscal issues than monetary ones. Who knew? Central banks in China and Russia are apparently in on the gold game too.

Bitcoin Vs. Gold

According to Timmer, the rise of both gold and Bitcoin has sparked a lot of chatter about monetary inflation. But he’s quick to point out that it’s not just about how much money is out there; it’s also about how much it costs. “The growth in traditional asset prices can’t just be explained away by monetary debasement,” he writes. So, there’s that. 🧐

His charts show that while M2 and GDP have been best buddies for over a century, CPI has been lagging behind like a kid who forgot their homework. He warns that adjusting asset prices against M2 might lead to some pretty wild conclusions. But hey, who doesn’t love a good plot twist?

Still, he finds that both Bitcoin and gold have strong ties to M2, but in different ways. “It’s interesting that there’s a linear correlation between M2 and gold, but a power curve between M2 and Bitcoin.” It’s like they’re on the same team but playing different sports. 🏀⚽

Timmer highlights gold’s long-run performance since 1970, saying it’s kept pace with many bond portfolios. Gold is like that reliable friend who always shows up when you need them. “A hedge against bonds,” he calls it. Because who doesn’t want a safety net in this crazy world?

He wraps it up by saying Bitcoin’s performance can’t be viewed in a vacuum. With yields all over the place and policymakers scratching their heads, investors might need to rethink the classic 60/40 portfolio model. “Bitcoin’s rise could reflect a market perception that fiscal concerns—not just monetary policy—are driving asset prices.” So, there you have it. It’s all connected, like a really complicated family tree. 🧬

At press time, BTC was trading at $95,700. So, if you’re looking to invest, maybe check your couch cushions first. You never know what you might find! 💰

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2025-02-19 11:12